If you’ve been reading the headlines lately, you might think the housing market is on the brink of collapse. Warnings of deep price cuts and oversupply dominate national coverage. But when you step back from the noise and actually examine the data, a much more nuanced—and frankly, more optimistic—story emerges.
At the Guthrie Schofield Group, we specialize in helping buyers and sellers navigate the luxury real estate market with clarity, precision, and a long-term view. And we believe it's essential to cut through the misinformation and offer a grounded perspective based on experience and evidence.
The National Outlook: Stability, Not Panic
Recent forecasts from Fannie Mae, the National Association of Realtors (NAR), and JP Morgan all paint a similar picture: modest home price appreciation and lower transaction volume, but no crash.
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Fannie Mae projects a 3% increase in home prices this year
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NAR forecasts 4.1% appreciation
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JP Morgan expects a 3% rise
Yes, affordability remains a challenge. And yes, mortgage rates and inflation have made it more difficult for first-time buyers to enter the market. But the underlying structural issue—a severe housing supply shortage—continues to support pricing across most of the U.S.
“The biggest mistake we’re seeing in media coverage right now is treating real estate like a monolith,” said Alfred Schofield. “Markets like Florida and Texas that overbuilt are seeing price softening. But here in the Northeast—and on Cape Cod especially—tight inventory and zoning constraints keep supply chronically low.”
Regional Differences Are Driving the Narrative
In states like Florida and Texas, a building boom has created a local oversupply. These two states alone have accounted for over 27% of all new housing starts in the U.S. over the past five years, despite making up only 16% of the national population.
By contrast, states like Massachusetts, New York, and coastal markets across New England face development constraints due to limited raw land, regulatory barriers, and long entitlement processes. That keeps housing supply extremely tight—even in periods of economic uncertainty.
In short, national headlines based on oversupply in the South don’t reflect conditions in the Northeast.
Sentiment Is Low, But Prices Are Holding
Consumer sentiment has declined significantly over the past year. Political uncertainty, high borrowing costs, and concerns over job security have all contributed to a more cautious buyer mindset. However, historical data shows that even during periods of weak sentiment, home prices rarely see sustained declines unless there is a structural crisis—like in 2008.
And we are nowhere near 2008.
“Back then, the problem was overleveraging and speculative financing. Today, it’s affordability and constrained supply,” said Tony Guthrie. “They’re entirely different situations. Sellers today are not overextended—they’re sitting on equity and sub-4% mortgage rates. That’s why inventory remains limited and prices are sticky.”
The Real Challenge: Lack of Supply
According to long-term housing trends, the U.S. is facing a deficit of more than 7 million homes. Even if new construction accelerated dramatically, it would take nearly a decade to close that gap.
This chronic underbuilding means that while some markets may correct slightly, the national housing market is fundamentally supported by structural scarcity.
Our Cape Cod Perspective
On Cape Cod, we continue to see strong demand—particularly for well-located, turn-key, and thoughtfully presented properties. And while buyer caution has returned, the right listings are still moving swiftly and competitively.
“We're not in a free-for-all anymore, but the buyers who are active are serious and well-qualified,” said Wesley Krell. “That’s why preparation and positioning matter more than ever.”
For sellers, this is a time to lead with strategy. For buyers, it's a time to be patient but prepared. And for anyone navigating this market—especially in the high-value segment—it's essential to have an informed, connected team guiding the process.
Looking Ahead
The real estate market in 2025 is not crashing—it’s recalibrating. While national narratives may skew negative, the underlying fundamentals remain strong in most Northeast markets. For those who stay informed and approach the market with discipline, this remains an excellent environment for long-term success.
Have questions about how these trends affect your goals? Let’s talk.
Visit us at guthrieschofieldgroup.com or reach out for a private consultation.
